An introduction to WinBUGS for Ecologists

by Marc Kéry

This book is a very gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis using WinBUGS for ecologists. It covers the linear model and its extension to the generalised linear and to the linear and generalised linear mixed model by way of extensive and fully documented examples. All data sets are simulated in program R; simulation allows a much greater insight into data and their analysis than the use of real data sets where truth is unknown. This web appendix contains additional information such as solutions to exercises and bonus material.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction
2. Principles of Bayesian statistics
3. WinBUGS (and a little bit on R)
4. A first session in WinBUGS: The “model of the mean”
5. Running WinBUGS from R via R2WinBUGS
6. Key components of (generalised) linear models: Statistical distributions and the linear predictor
7. t-Test: equal and unequal variance
8. Normal linear regression
9. Normal one-way ANOVA
10. Two-way ANOVA with interaction
11. General linear model (“ANCOVA”)
12. Linear mixed-effects model
13. Introduction to the Generalised linear model (GLM): Poisson t-test
14. Overdispersion and offsets in the GLM
15. Poisson ANCOVA
16. Poisson mixed-effects model (Poisson GLMM)
17. Binomial t-test
18. Binomial ANCOVA
19. Binomial mixed-effects model (Binomial GLMM)
20. Non-standard GLMMs 1: Site-occupancy distribution model
21. Non-standard GLMMs 2: Binomial mixture model for the modeling of true abundance